Sunday, February 10, 2008

Fox News Contributor Karl Rove Comments on the 2008 Presidential Race

"I've received...unqualified support from hard-line Maoists.....[T]he Maoist International Movement (MIM) have used their weekly papers to advance some of the best analysis of my case and its implications yet published"--ex-professor Ward Churchill

The Maoist Internationalist Movement (MIM) once again has issued a stern warning that he is short of funds and may soon cease to exist.

Dear Leader has posted notice to Dear Readers that February 9, 2008 may be his "last new operations day" unless he is "bailed out by the masses."

Those peskkky no-count masses! Where are they when MIM really gets a yen to nibble on the kibble at the Piggly Wiggly?

Premier Apologist seems to be taking as long to wither away as Brezhnev. Or Mao. Or Franco. Or Castro. Or Mono. Or Wardo. I deduce from MIM's considerable recuperative powers that has not yet been reduced imbibing Kool-Aid or dining on adulterated Chinese dog food.

MIM writes "February 9, 2008: MIM's last new operations day? The question is joined."

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the newest FOX News Contributor, the former Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove, appeared on FOX News (2-8-08) with his whiteboard and discussed the presidential primaries and caucuses. [Here is a primer on primaries and caucuses.]

Readers can also view part 1 and part 2 of the interview.

Rove says that McCain would rather go up against Hillary Clinton than against Barack Obama in the 2008 election.

Here are some highlights of Rove's analysis of the 2008 Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses in his first appearance as a Fox News Contributor:

Senator McCain wants to go into the general election with a united Republican party. He is smart enough to recognize that the party is not fully united. He is going to spend some time, and he has plenty of time to do it, to bring the party together.

[Senator McCain] is winning the [Republican]nomination. He is winning the delegates, the delegate race. He has 707 delegates out of the 1191 that he needs to win. He has won those by not blowing away the competition, but by steadily beating them in these contests. He recognizes that he won Missouri with 33 percent of the vote. That means he has a lot of work to do. And he recognizes that [he has to] to bring the people together and unite them behind a common message.

...[A] lot of grass roots conservatives had another candidate, but they think highly of him. That's why, in national polls, McCain is beating Obama and beating Clinton. It's because he is able to unite the Republican party and grab a bunch of independents and discerning Democrats enough that he is leading both of them in the national polls.

That is to say, let's be careful about overstating conservative disenchantment with McCain. Lots of conservatives have specific disagreements with him on issues. True. But at the end of the day, those — in polls, when asked, are you for McCain or Clinton, or Obama or Clinton, they come — or Obama or McCain, the Republicans unite. Conservatives say, we are for McCain. As a result he leads in the polls.

...To win the nomination, the Republican nominee needs 1,191 delegates. Huckabee, according to the Associated Press today, has 192 delegates. So he needs 999 more delegates in order to win the nomination. There are 1,199 delegates who have yet to be voted upon in primaries and caucuses. So, for Huckabee to win the nomination, he would have to take 83.3 percent of the people who are yet up for grabs. That's just impossible. It's not going to happen. The math works tremendously against him.

On the other hand, take Senator McCain. He has, according to the AP tonight, 707, which means that he needs — I'm drawing backwards here — 484. So, instead of 83 percent, he has only got to win 40 percent of the people that are left out for grabs. So, I look at this and say it just simply doesn't work for Huckabee. And it is clear — I mean, no candidate at this late stage of the game is going to win 83 percent of the delegates, particularly since he has won just a fraction, just about 12 or 13 percent of the delegates elected thus far.

So the contest is over. And it will probably go on through next Tuesday. Governor Huckabee has every right to stay in the race as long as he and his donors allow. But the contest is over and it's impossible for him to secure the nomination.

...I would suspect, particularly as we get more clarity about who the Democrat is, that the Republicans are going to get more united and conservatives are going to see the importance of going to this contest with a very strong united front.

...First of all, the Democrats are very — the Associated Press says Hillary has 832 delegates, and Obama has 821. Now, they need 2025 to nominate. They are both a long way from it. But closely — you know, closely bunched up there. This week, there are 182 delegates yet to be chosen in caucuses and primaries on Friday — or excuse me on Saturday and Sunday.

...I think [the Democratic nominee is] going to be Senator Clinton because I think Senator Obama's best shots are largely behind him. That is to say, between what has been voted on through Tuesday night and what comes in February, he has had more caucus states where he does well and he has had most of the states that have substantial African-American populations, where he has done extremely well.

But, look, it's going to be a very close contest. And I suspect that it's ultimately going — the margin of victory is going to be decided by how the Super Delegates split. That is to say, the delegates that are actually elected in caucuses and primaries will be closely divided, probably with a small advantage to Senator Clinton, maybe with a small advantage to Senator Obama. But I think ultimately what happens among those Super Delegates will provide the margin of victory and give a little bit of acceleration to the winner by giving him or her a slightly larger margin.

...[Hillary Clinton] is going to be outspent. She was outspent on Tuesday night. But, look, if he brings in 7.2 million dollars and she brings in 6.4 million dollars on the Internet within a 48 hour period, that's roughly equal. I mean, we are talking about who got their email message out first and, you know, I suspect he will continue to out raise her. But it's not going to be by a margin enough to guarantee him victory.

And she has some intangible assets in the form of the nature of the contests that are yet to come. You mention he won more state. Think about the states that [Barack Obama] won. He won Idaho. Does anybody realistically think that Idaho is going to be won by the Democrats in the fall? And it was a caucus with literally with a handful of people voting. North Dakota, there were — what — 17,000 people in North Dakota voted in the Democratic caucuses or 18,000. That is a small fraction of the state's Democrats who are an embattled minority.

...The caucuses gave [Barack Obama] a big advantage. Without the caucuses, if those had been primaries — take a look at Idaho and Utah, I mean, you know, Clinton did a lot better in a primary state in Utah than she did in a caucus state just to the north that shares a lot of characteristics.

HANNITY: Karl, am I right in my thinking that if I'm John McCain, I would rather go up against Hillary than Barack Obama? We're short on time.

ROVE: Yes, absolutely. Everybody knows who she is and has strong opinions about her.

HANNITY: Alright. Now, we expect the blackboard on every appearance. But in all sincerity, Karl Rove, the architect, welcome to the Fox News Channel.

ROVE: It will be back. [full text]

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